Today’s factismal: The first earthquake to be shown live on television happened in 1989.
You may have heard that there is a 72% chance that there will be a large earthquake near San Francisco sometime in the next thirty years. And that there is an 85% chance of a large earthquake on the San Andreas fault sometime in the next ten years. Experts think that it could cause as many as 1,800 deaths and as much as $200 billion in damage. But how can we know how much damage an earthquake will do? Simple – we know because we saw one happen, live on TV.
It was a balmy October evening in San Francisco. The Giants were competing with the Oakland A’s for the pennant, and the two teams were warming up in preparation for game three. As the television sports casters searched for something to add a little local color to the broadcast, they were given the greatest exclusive in history: an earthquake struck the area. And not some piddly little 4.0; this was a 6.9 Mb earthquake! As the anchors tried to describe what was happening, the world saw buildings shake, highways fall, and homes crumble into rubble.
Amazingly, there were only 63 people killed in the earthquake (the 1905 temblor was about 30 times stronger and killed 3,000 people). Most of these happened in Oakland where a double-decker highway collapsed on itself. Interestingly, many credit the baseball game for the low fatality count. Because many people had left work early in order to watch the game, the highways were relatively uncrowded which meant that fewer people were hurt.
But what is even more amazing is that the danger isn’t over. There is a 99.7% chance that some part of California will have another earthquake at least as powerful as this one in the next thirty years. So we know when the next big on will happen (soon); what we don’t know is where. And that’s where you can help. The USGS and Stanford University are developing a new type of distributed seismometer that uses the accelerometers in tablets, smartphones, and computers to provide more complete coverage of earthquakes; the data that this Quake Catcher Network gathers will then help them to narrow down when we can expect the next big one. If you’d like to take part, head over to: